WHEN WILL IRAN ATTACK?

Welcome to your latest Strategic Spotlight

🌟 Top Story

1.WHEN WILL IRAN ATTACK?: Geopolitical Tensions

The Pressing Question: Will Iran Strike Israel?

As geopolitical tensions escalate, a central question on many minds is whether Iran will launch an attack against Israel. However, the more nuanced and critical question to consider is not just whether Iran will strike, but how such an attack might unfold.

Historically, Iran has been consistent in its rhetoric, often following through on its threats. When Iran declares intentions to strike, it generally does so with a clear plan. Yet, Iran’s approach is anything but straightforward. Instead of engaging in direct conflict, Iran tends to leverage its network of proxy militias across the Middle East. This strategy helps Iran avoid the direct confrontation that it cannot afford.

A significant challenge for Iran is managing the logistics of supporting these militias. The movement of equipment and resources to these groups is carefully concealed to avoid detection by Israeli and U.S. intelligence. The monitoring of suspicious activities—such as unusual boat and truck movements—is a routine part of intelligence operations. This is why we often see drones being used in attacks against Israel; they are less costly and easier to deploy compared to more sophisticated weaponry.

Additionally, Iran’s relationship with Russia introduces another layer of complexity. Recent reports indicate that Russia prefers a restrained response from Iran. It is speculated that Russia needs Iran to continue supplying one-way suicide drones, and thus, will exert pressure to prevent Iran from escalating into a full-scale war. Russia has even provided Iran with radar systems to support its military capabilities.

Moreover, the U.S. has positioned two carrier groups on standby, ready to respond if Iran decides to act aggressively or mobilize its militias.

In conclusion, while the timing of an Iranian strike remains uncertain, the focus should be on understanding the likely methods and strategies Iran might employ. Predicting the exact timing of an attack is speculative at best. Instead, attention should be directed towards how Iran plans to execute its actions within the complex web of regional dynamics.

🌍 Regional Focus

🗺️ AFRICA: SAHAEL AFRICA

• Jihadist Insurgencies: The Sahel has seen a rise in violence from various jihadist groups, such as Boko Haram, ISIS affiliates (like ISIS-West Africa), and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). These groups are involved in attacks on both military and civilian targets.

• Ethnic and Communal Violence: In addition to jihadist violence, there are frequent clashes between different ethnic and communal groups, often driven by competition over resources, land, and political power.

• Food Insecurity: The violence has exacerbated food insecurity in the region. Many people face severe hunger and malnutrition due to disrupted agriculture and trade.

🔍 Special Reports

📊WHY IS THE U.S STILL IN IRAQ?

Counter-Terrorism Operations

ISIS Threat:

• Despite significant progress in defeating ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria), the group still maintains the capability to conduct insurgent activities and attacks. U.S. forces continue to assist Iraqi security forces in counter-terrorism operations and in preventing the resurgence of ISIS.

• Even though they don’t control large areas, ISIS still exists in Iraq. They are more like a group of people who try to cause trouble by attacking or hiding in different places. They are not as powerful, but they can still be a threat.

• The Iraqi military and their partners are working to find and stop these smaller groups to keep the country safe.

🔝 FUN FACT

The F-16 made its first flight on February 2, 1974. It entered service with the U.S. Air Force in 1978 and has since become one of the most widely used fighter aircraft in the world.

Best Regards,

Marcus Obeada,